| Abstract |
For most of southern Africa, the January to March quarter is the main rainfall period of the year, with the exception of the winter rainfall areas.
However, March and April can still bring considerable rainfall to ensure sufficient grazing for wild-life and livestock.
Four long-term forecasts have been consulted for the upcoming rainfall period between 1 March and 31 May 2025. Notably, for SARCOF-29 forecast for March to May 2025 is not available, and for SAWS, only the period of February to April 2025 was available.
Differences between these five forecasts’ for southern Africa should continue to instill a sense of prudence in heeding these forecasts or in only considering one of these forecasts in isolation. From February to April 2025, NOAA issued predictions of a persisting La Niña favoring positive predictions for above normal rainfall (NOAA 2025). However, according to the WMO Global Producing Centres for Seasonal Prediction, average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are expected to normalize and accordingly, ENSO-neutral conditions (implying neither El Niño nor La Niña) will return during the March to May 2025 period (WMO 2025). |
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