| Abstract |
Attributes of long-term hydrological regime of a river basin are referred to as Hydrological Indices which can
further be used to characterise the river flow behavior with factors including scale, occurrence, period, mastery
and rate of change of flow. The focus is to evaluate hydrological indices useful for analysing changes in
groundwater quantity and quality arising from impacts of climate change. A larger population in the Upper
Zambezi River Basin depend on the groundwater as a source of their rural water supply. Few studies have
analysed the hydrological indices from future climate change scenarios for predicting climate change tipping
points in Southern Africa. This paper therefore seeks to investigate impacts on groundwater resources by
applying climate model projections and hydrological indices. The results show novelty in climate change impact
under Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario that will affect temporal and spatial variability of
groundwater. Furthermore, spatial variability of groundwater recharge is predicted to have minimal change in
the north of Upper Zambezi River Basin ranging from 12 to – 22% while a huge change is predicted in the
southern direction ranging from 31 to 42%. Baseflow across the basin has shown a reduction to a considerable degree while Soil Moisture Index has shown severe dryness in Barotse and Chobe sub catchments. Hydrological indices also show that the future scenario may have reduced groundwater availability. Therefore, the novel results require strategic thinking for adaptation especially in the rural water supplies that largely depend on
Groundwater resources. |
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