| Abstract |
As most of southern Africa has been suffering from a prolonged drought (SASSCAL 2024), water security, food security for subsistence farmers, grazing and crop successes will rely heavily on the rainfall for the coming months of the 2025 rainfall period. Five long-term forecasts have been consulted for the upcoming rainfall period between 1 February and 30 April 2025. Notably, for SARCOF-29 and SAWS, only the period of January to March 2025 was available.
Differences between these five forecasts’ for southern Africa should instill a strong sense of prudence in heeding these forecasts or in only considering one of these forecasts in isolation. In particular as no two forecasts agree on the period from February to April. NOAA, in their January 2025 update reported a 59% chance that La Niña will persist through February to April, which may favor the positive predictions for above normal rainfall.
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