| Abstract |
For most of southern Africa, the April-May-June quarter only contributes only a small amount of the total rainfall of the year, with Angola receiving around 12 %, Botswana 8 %, Namibia 10 %, Zambia 6 % and Zimbabwe 6 % of the average annual total of rainfall year.
For AMJ 2026, five seasonal forecasts have been consulted. While WMO, JAMSTEC and ECMWF generally predict normal precipitation for the AMJ quarter, IRI’s prediction notably is incomplete, while the SADC outlook predicts generally normal to below normal conditions for most of Angola, Namibia and Zambia, and normal to above normal for most of Botswana, South Africa’s central and eastern parts and Zimbabwe.
The NOAA publication “EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION” of
12 March 2026 reports that La Niña conditions will transition to an ENSO-neutral state in the next month.
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