| Abstract |
Predictive spatial risk models (PSRM) for large carnivore predation on livestock are critical in managing costs associated with carnivore conservation and promoting coexistence among carnivores, wild herbivores and livestock. Development of PSRM involves understanding of site and carnivore specific ecological predictors for predation and help prioritize conflict areas where appropriate mitigation efforts should be directed. PSRM are also potentially useful in advancing strategic endeavours in adaptation to climate change and land management. However, research in developing PSRM models is still limited in Botswana and Africa at large. This study indicated that lion (panthera leo) mainly killed large livestock (cows & mares) 86.9% (n=345) while leopard (panthera pardus) usually killed small livestock (goats & calves) 79.2% (n=76) and wild dog (lycaon pictus) killed both large and small livestock (cattle (47.44%, n=37) (goats (35.90%, n=28). We then mapped risk of lion, leopard and wild dog using number of livestock killed at cattle posts. Then we incorporated ecological (vegetation and topographic features and species abundance) variables and compared risk categories of the maps. For all the species, incorporation of variables decreased %area of minimum risk classes whereas %area of maximum risk classes were increased. The visual maps also depicts that lions concentrate on areas closer to the National park boundary compared to leopard and wild dog. |
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