| Abstract |
For most of southern Africa, the January to March quarter corresponds to the main rainfall period and has the highest rainfall of the year (with the exception of the winter rainfall areas. )
Five seasonal forecasts have been consulted for the rainfall period starting 1 January 2026 and ending 31 March 2026. While WMO, JAMSTEC and ECMWF generally predict normal precipitation for the JFM quarter, IRI predicts below average conditions for larger parts of southern Africa, while the SADC outlook predicts generally above average conditions, except for the north-western part of Angola.
The NOAA publication “EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION“ of 8 January 2026 reports that La Niña conditions are prevailing, but declares a wide temporal window for when conditions will again transition to an ENSO-neutral state, ranging between January and March 2026. |
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