| Abstract |
For most of southern Africa, the October to December quarter of 2025 is the first quarter of the rainfall year, with the exception of the winter rainfall areas. It generally spells the onset of the rainfall season, with much greater downpours only expected as from January in most of south-ern Africa. But it does bring the first relief from the cold and dry winter months.
Five seasonal forecasts have been consulted for the rainfall period starting 1 October 2025 and ending 31 December 2025.
The NOAA publication “ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions“ forecasts the transition from an ENSO-neutral state to a La Niña. NOAA predicts that in October to December 2025, there is a 71% chance of La Niña. Chances of a La Niña decrease to 54% between December 2025 and February 2026. |
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