| Abstract |
The heavy flooding in Botswana, from 19 to 21 February 2025, was caused by the highest February rainfall recorded since 1981, according to the CHIRPS 3.0 satellite data product.
Nine people, tragically including 7 children, lost their lives and according to the IFRC, around 9 000 were targeted for relief action. According to World Weather Attribution, at least 5 000 people were displaced in Botswana and KwaZulu-Natal of South Africa, also affected by the heavy February downpours, due to flooded housing and submerged road infrastructure.
An analysis of the total February rainfall for Botswana, from CHIRPS 3.0 satellite-based precipitation data, suggests that especially Ghanzi, Central Kgalagadi Game Reserve, Kweneng West and East, Gaborone, Southern and South East Districts of Botswana received on average between 200 and 400 % rainfall more than would be expected for the month of February. The aver-age rainfall for February was derived from CHIRPS 3.0 precipitation data from 1981 to 2024.
A recent scientific study suggests that the flooding in Botswana’s urban areas in Gaborone and South East District was partly caused by infrastructure development not keeping pace with population growth and population pressure. The study also found that the flooding event has a return period of 40 years, which implies it has a 2 to 3 % probability of occurring in any given year. Finally, while the study finds that human-induced climate change did very likely play an amplifying role on February’s rainfall, it can not be deduced with confidence, how much of an effect human-induced climate change had. |
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